{"id":606,"date":"2010-04-22T15:48:52","date_gmt":"2010-04-22T14:48:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/soerenkern.com\/web\/?p=606"},"modified":"2014-05-02T00:19:16","modified_gmt":"2014-05-01T23:19:16","slug":"britain%e2%80%99s-looming-defense-budget-squeeze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/soerenkern.com\/web\/2010\/04\/22\/britain%e2%80%99s-looming-defense-budget-squeeze\/","title":{"rendered":"Britain\u2019s Looming Defense Budget Squeeze"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/soerenkern.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/06\/soeren-kern-british-defense-spending.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-607\" title=\"soeren kern british defense spending\" src=\"https:\/\/soerenkern.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/06\/soeren-kern-british-defense-spending.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Although neither candidate has spelled out exactly where the budget axe will fall, military spending will almost certainly take a hit in coming years, regardless of who leads the next government. In fact, all three candidates say the status quo on military spending is unsustainable, and all are calling for a post-election strategic defense review (SDR), one that will sketch out what sort of armed forces Britain can afford in the medium to long-term.<\/em><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Britain&#8217;s Looming Defense Budget Squeeze<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Soeren Kern | American Enterprise Institute | April 22, 2010<\/p>\n<p>Although neither candidate has spelled out exactly where the budget axe will fall, military spending will almost certainly take a hit in coming years, regardless of who leads the next government. In fact, all three candidates say the status quo on military spending is unsustainable, and all are calling for a post-election strategic defense review (SDR), one that will sketch out what sort of armed forces Britain can afford in the medium to long-term.<\/p>\n<p>With the British general election set for May 6, the campaign is now racing in full gear. In recent days, the three front runners \u2013 <a href=\"http:\/\/www2.labour.org.uk\/\" target=\"_blank\">Labour\u2019s Gordon Brown<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.conservatives.com\/Policy\/Manifesto.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">Conservative David Cameron<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.libdems.org.uk\/our_manifesto.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">Liberal Nick Clegg<\/a> \u2013 have all published their policy manifestos, and for the first time in British history, have participated in a live television debate.<\/p>\n<p>But opinion polls show there still is no outright winner. Most polls have the Conservatives in a small but narrowing lead over Labour, and some surveys are showing a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/politics\/2010\/apr\/16\/nick-clegg-guardian-icm-poll-pm\" target=\"_blank\">post-debate surge for the Liberals<\/a>. If current polls are to be believed, there is a good chance that no one party will win a governing majority, an outcome that would pave the way for a coalition government.<\/p>\n<p>In any case, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aFy7olAsHDQU\" target=\"_blank\">troubled British economy<\/a> is the dominant issue in this campaign, and there is very little substantive difference among the three candidates over how to fix it. All three agree that drastic cuts in public spending are needed to draw down a colossal national debt and a bulging budget deficit. The only real difference of opinion revolves around timing: Cameron wants to reduce spending now, but Brown and Clegg say immediate cuts would endanger Britain\u2019s fragile economic recovery.<\/p>\n<p>Although neither candidate has spelled out exactly where the budget axe will fall, military spending will almost certainly take a hit in coming years, regardless of who leads the next government. In fact, all three candidates say the status quo on military spending is unsustainable, and all are calling for a post-election strategic defense review (SDR), one that will sketch out what sort of armed forces Britain can afford in the medium to long-term.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rusi.org\/downloads\/assets\/FDR_Working_Paper_1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Royal United Services Institute<\/a> (RUSI), a British military think tank, has produced one of the most comprehensive estimates of what the military budget might be like during the period covered by the SDR. In a report titled \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.rusi.org\/downloads\/assets\/FDR_Working_Paper_1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Preparing for the Lean Years<\/a>,\u201d RUSI says defense spending in Britain could be slashed by up to 15 percent in real terms during 2010-2016 as the next government enacts austerity measures to tackle massive public debt. RUSI says cuts on this scale could produce significant reductions not only in manpower but also in the acquisition of new weapons systems; they could also affect ongoing operations abroad, such as in Afghanistan.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.publications.parliament.uk\/pa\/cm200910\/cmselect\/cmpubacc\/338\/33802.htm\" target=\"_blank\">House of Commons Public Accounts Committee<\/a> says the British Ministry of Defense faces a funding shortfall that runs from \u00a336 billion to as high as \u00a380 billion over the coming decade. The report warns that the defense budget is \u201cfundamentally unaffordable.\u201d Matters have become so bad, it says, that the Defense Ministry \u201cwill have to take difficult decisions, such as to cancel whole equipment programmes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Labour Party has been questioning whether Britain can afford to retain its full military capabilities. A controversial government green paper titled \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.mod.uk\/NR\/rdonlyres\/790C77EC-550B-4AE8-B227-14DA412FC9BA\/0\/defence_green_paper_cm7794.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Adaptability and Partnership: Issues for the Strategic Defence Review<\/a>,\u201d says Britain cannot afford to pursue all its current defense activities while supporting operations in Afghanistan and elsewhere and investing in new systems. In a major shift from previous policy, the paper says Britain could offset retrenchment by increasing its dependence on military alliances, especially with France and the European Union.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ippr.org.uk\/members\/download.asp?f=\/ecomm\/files\/shared_responsibility_summary.pdf&amp;a=skip\" target=\"_blank\">Institute for Public Policy Research<\/a>, a think tank with strong ties to the Labour Party, says the government could save billions by restructuring the British military to focus on specialist capabilities as part of a greater commitment to European defense integration. The IPPR also says Britain should reconsider plans to replace the existing Trident nuclear deterrent, which goes out of service in the 2020s; and it recommends reviewing whether major projects like the Future Aircraft Carrier, the Joint Strike Fighter and the Astute nuclear attack submarine are needed.<\/p>\n<p>The Conservative Party says Britain must retain the capability to act unilaterally and not just as part of an alliance. In a speech outlining <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rusi.org\/events\/ref:E4B62C2FEC5252\" target=\"_blank\">Conservative Party plans for the SDR<\/a>, Liam Fox, the shadow defense secretary, said: \u201cWe have unique national interests and have to maintain the capability to act unilaterally if required.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But Fox has avoided making commitments on defense spending levels, and says the next government will inherit a grim economic situation from which \u201cdefense cannot be immune.\u201d Fox also says the SDR will be carried out \u201cruthlessly and without sentiment. Tough decisions will be made and there will be winners and losers at the end of the process. \u2026 Make no mistake; we need a step change not tinkering.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>George Osborne, the Tory Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, has said that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/newstopics\/politics\/defence\/6194293\/George-Osborne-Tories-could-cut-defence-projects.html\" target=\"_blank\">three of Britain\u2019s biggest defense projects<\/a> with a combined value of nearly \u00a330 billion could face the axe if the Conservatives win the election. He cited the \u00a320 billion Eurofighter-Typhoon project, the \u00a34 billion project to build two aircraft carriers and the \u00a33 billion order for 25 A400 transport aircraft as areas ripe for cuts.<\/p>\n<p>For his part, Clegg says the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/politics\/2009\/jun\/16\/trident-liberal-democrats-nick-clegg\" target=\"_blank\">Trident nuclear deterrent should be scrapped<\/a>, saying it is too expensive and no longer meets Britain\u2019s defense needs. Replacing the Trident would cost an estimated \u00a320 billion. Clegg also rejects the idea that Britain\u2019s diplomatic status as a world power on the UN Security Council would be undermined if it was no longer a nuclear-weapon state. \u201cThat is nostalgic, sepia-tinted phooey. The Security Council is a complete anachronism. It does not reflect at all the changed world we live in.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, with the election less than a month away, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.timesonline.co.uk\/tol\/news\/politics\/article7010508.ece\" target=\"_blank\">Brown is pledging billions<\/a> in extra defense spending in what the Tories say is a last-minute effort fend off accusations that he has <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/idUSTRE60I49G20100119\" target=\"_blank\">failed to properly equip British troops<\/a> in Iraq and Afghanistan.<\/p>\n<p>In recent weeks, Brown has promised to proceed with the construction of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/finance\/newsbysector\/industry\/7338842\/Can-Britain-afford-not-to-build-5bn-Royal-Navy-aircraft-carriers.html\" target=\"_blank\">two 65,000-tonne aircraft carriers<\/a> at a cost of \u00a35 billion, and to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/1b97009c-3789-11df-88c6-00144feabdc0.html\" target=\"_blank\">build two more Astute-class nuclear submarines<\/a> at a cost of \u00a32 billion. He has also announced contracts for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/story.php?i=4567289\" target=\"_blank\">armoured fighting vehicles and other equipment<\/a> totalling more than \u00a32.5 billion.<\/p>\n<p>The contract awards have been <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/1b97009c-3789-11df-88c6-00144feabdc0.html\" target=\"_blank\">sharply criticized<\/a> by the Conservatives and Fox has compared them to a \u201cbankrupt shopaholic on one last spending binge before jail.\u201d He has pledged to re-examine many of the deals if the Tories win the election.<\/p>\n<p><em><a title=\"SoerenKern.com\" href=\"http:\/\/www.soerenkern.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Soeren Kern<\/a> is Senior Fellow for Transatlantic Relations at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estrat\u00e9gicos \/ Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on <a title=\"Soeren Kern Facebook\" href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Soeren.Kern\" target=\"_blank\">Facebook<\/a>. Follow him on <a title=\"Soeren Kern Twitter\" href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/SoerenKern\" target=\"_blank\">Twitter<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Originally published by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.defensestudies.org\/?p=2282\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Defense Studies<\/a> at the American Enterprise Institute.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Although neither candidate has spelled out exactly where the budget axe will fall, military spending will almost certainly take a hit in coming years, regardless of who leads the next government. In fact, all three candidates say the status quo on military spending is unsustainable, and all are calling for a post-election strategic defense review [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,119,10],"tags":[180,9,40,173],"class_list":["post-606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geopolitics","category-aerospace-and-defense","category-transatlantic-relations","tag-britain","tag-europe","tag-european-defense","tag-transatlantic-relations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Britain\u2019s Looming Defense Budget Squeeze - Soeren Kern | Geopolitical Perspectives on Europe, America and the Middle East<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/soerenkern.com\/web\/2010\/04\/22\/britain\u2019s-looming-defense-budget-squeeze\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Britain\u2019s Looming Defense Budget Squeeze - Soeren Kern | Geopolitical Perspectives on Europe, America and the Middle East\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Although neither candidate has spelled out exactly where the budget axe will fall, military spending will almost certainly take a hit in coming years, regardless of who leads the next government. 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