Spain: A Political Risk Analysis
Soeren Kern | June 1, 2010
Filed Under: Research & Analysis
Spain’s debt-laden Socialist government is caught in a Catch-22 situation in which it has failed to satisfy conflicting demands to cut its budget and stimulate job creation and economic growth. If the government cuts public spending to the level needed to reduce the deficit, it will drag down economic growth and make it more difficult for Spain to emerge from recession and reduce unemployment. But if the government fails to cut spending, the chances increase that Spain will default on its debts. Read more
Britain’s Looming Defense Budget Squeeze
Soeren Kern | April 22, 2010
Filed Under: Research & Analysis
Although neither candidate has spelled out exactly where the budget axe will fall, military spending will almost certainly take a hit in coming years, regardless of who leads the next government. In fact, all three candidates say the status quo on military spending is unsustainable, and all are calling for a post-election strategic defense review (SDR), one that will sketch out what sort of armed forces Britain can afford in the medium to long-term. Read more
European Union: Global Security Actor or Paper Tiger?
Soeren Kern | March 15, 2010
Filed Under: Research & Analysis
The future direction of European defense is at a crossroads. On the one hand, the NATO experience in Afghanistan has cast into stark relief the limits of European military capacities, not only at the operational but also at the political levels. On the other hand, the recently enacted Lisbon Treaty offers important new opportunities to improve European defense capabilities, especially at the institutional level. Read more
Spanish Presidency of the EU: High Hopes, Low Expectations
Soeren Kern | February 13, 2010
Filed Under: Research & Analysis
Spain holds the six-month rotating presidency of the 27-member European Union from January through June 2010. The following analysis explains the domestic political and economic context facing the Zapatero government during Spain’s EU presidency. It then examines in greater detail several of the Zapatero government’s stated priorities for Spain’s EU presidency, and then closes with an assessment of what Spain may realistically expect to accomplish before it hands the EU presidency over to Belgium on July 1, 2010. Read more
Spain’s EU Presidency Greeted with Skepticism
Soeren Kern | January 12, 2010
Filed Under: Research & Analysis
Spain’s six-month rotating presidency of the European Union, which began on Jan. 1, 2010, is off to a bumpy start. With the Lisbon Treaty now in effect, the traditional role of the EU rotating presidency has been downgraded. Responsibility for many issues which were once the domain of the rotating presidency now falls to the newly named permanent EU president, Herman Van Rompuy, and EU foreign minister, Catherine Ashton — who together are supposed to comprise the new “public face” of the EU. Read more
“Minarets are our Bayonets”: The Swiss Vote to Ban Them
Soeren Kern | December 3, 2009
Filed Under: Opinion & Commentary
Swiss voters on November 29 overwhelmingly approved a referendum to ban the construction of minarets, the tower-like structures on mosques that are often used to call Muslims to prayer. The surprise outcome of the referendum, which passed with a clear majority of 57.5 percent of the voters, represents a turning point in the debate about Islam, not only in Switzerland, but across Europe more generally. Read more
Mr Zapatero Goes to Washington
Soeren Kern | October 13, 2009
Filed Under: Opinion & Commentary
Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s second term in office has not been a happy affair for Spain. Soundly re-elected on a post-modern platform of Socialism, pacifism and feminism just 18 months ago, Zapatero has since stumbled badly in the face of an economic crisis that shows no signs of abating. With his poll numbers now at an all-time low, Zapatero is hoping that his October 13 visit to the White House will reverse his foundering political fortunes. Read more
End of Obamamania? Europe’s Tepid Reaction to Obama’s Nobel
Soeren Kern | October 11, 2009
Filed Under: Opinion & Commentary
European newspapers have reacted to Barack Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize with a mixture of incredulity and scepticism. Almost without exception, newspapers across the continent (and political spectrum) are saying the award to Obama is premature and undeserved. Read more
Lisbon Treaty: Europe’s Slow-Moving Coup d’État
Soeren Kern | October 10, 2009
Filed Under: Opinion & Commentary
Irish voters have overwhelmingly approved the European Union’s controversial Lisbon Treaty, a document that will forever change the dynamics of European (and potentially global) politics. The “yes” vote comes less than 18 months after Irish voters gave the “wrong” answer by rejecting the treaty in a first referendum. Read more
Germany Swings to the Center-Right
Soeren Kern | September 27, 2009
Filed Under: Research & Analysis
German Chancellor Angela Merkel cruised to victory in federal elections on Sunday with enough votes to form a new center-right government with her preferred partner, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP). The results follow a trend in which Socialist parties across Europe have seen sharp declines in their popularity.